Covid, ECDC: by the end of August 90% of infections in Europe will be from Delta variant
The alarm is sounded by the ECDC, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, which urges everyone to get vaccinated as soon as possible
Delta variant, within weeks it will be predominant
“By the end of August, 90% of new infections in Europe will be Delta variant and the relaxation of non-pharmaceutical measures, such as personal protective equipment, could lead to an increase in infections, hospitalisations and deaths to similar levels as in autumn 2020″.
This is the alarm raised by the ECDC, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.
On the basis of scientific evidence,” the European agency explains, “the B.1.617.2 variant, known as Delta and identified as a ‘variant of concern’ (VOC), has a 40-60% higher transmissibility than the original Alpha strain, B.1.1.7, and is associated with a higher risk of hospitalisation.
Those who have received the first of the two doses of the vaccine cycle,” adds the ECDC, “are less protected against infection with the Delta variant than they are against the other variants, regardless of the type of vaccine received for the first administration.
In light of this transmission advantage and using predictive calculation models, the ECDC states that 70% of new infections in Europe will be Delta variant by August and 90% by the end of the same month”.
The ECDC therefore recommends that “all individuals at high risk of infection with Sars-Cov-2 should complete vaccination as soon as possible to avoid the risk of new hospitalisations and deaths”.
It also recommends that ‘groups at high risk of infection get their second dose as soon as possible after receiving the first dose’.
Non-pharmaceutical measures still important to curb spread of Covid Delta variant
Based on this scenario, it is indicated that any relaxation of non-pharmaceutical measures, such as protective equipment and physical distancing, could lead to a significant increase in cases in all age groups, with associated hospitalisation and mortality resuming at the same levels as in autumn 2020, if no measures are taken to counter the spread,” concludes the Ecdc assessment note on new estimates of the transmission advantage with Voc Delta.
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